And if there's real damage, then we're really kind of in the dumps here for awhile.

The impact on prices is really dependent on the track of the storm and how it affects production platforms and gathering lines in the Gulf. If the impacts are anything like Hurricane Ivan last year, then prices will clearly spike up.

If he's taking lessons from Chavez, it's worrisome.

The lack of spare capacity has made us vulnerable to any threat to supply over the last few years. It's important to keep in mind that the biggest single loss of oil output recently was in the Gulf of Mexico.

This is illusory to me. I don't think this means anything.

Production in the Gulf has yet to recover and the trouble in Nigeria shows no signs of easing. We are missing about 1 million barrels of output.

SPR volumes are generous and the quality looks fine, so the real issue for refiners is how that prospective purchase shapes up against alternatives in terms of certainty, price and availability.

My sense is there's going be another price spike.

Most of these supply situations are fraught with some kind of peril.